Statistically Insignificant
One of the reasons I have loved writing this newsletter on a weekly basis is because it increases the amount of dialogue in my life. Even with limited responses, sitting down and writing out my thoughts feels as though I’m having a conversation with someone. When the newsletter actually does generate a conversation with another person, I count that as a real win.
I’ve written before about my motivations for starting this website and writing this newsletter, as well as my exploration of other bloggers whose writing I really enjoy. The quick summary is that I want to generate dialogue (with myself and others) and I want to replicate what these bloggers have created, particularly their consistent voice, dedicated and critical readership, and bravery to be honest about what is on their mind. I have a long, long way to go towards all of those things, but in the spirit of goal-setting, I want to look back in five years and say that I’ve accomplished some of that.
One of the cool things about using WordPress for my website is that I can see real-time viewership data. Unfortunately, that data is not always pretty to look at. See below for monthly page views of EF Writing Project:
Just to clarify – April 2020 is when I shared the site with about 85% of you, which explains the leap to nearly 1,000 views in that month. It wasn’t because of my poop essay, although in a couple of years I’ll shamelessly write about the infamous poop pop of 2020 as if it was. As for the other months? I’m no statistician, but I can comfortably say that the recent trend is not promising. Here’s a bad joke: What’s the opposite of a hockey stick chart? An upside down hockey stick chart.
I start with all of this because, like everyone else, I fantasize about instant success and gratification often. And, as is clear above, my stats are an effective way to bring me back to Earth. I could double my website’s views myself, in the period of about an hour. Probably less. That is humbling.
One of Jordan Peterson’s 12 Rules For Life is this: Compare yourself to who you were yesterday, not to who someone else is today. Take a minute to let that soak in. It is pure gold. Every single time I have felt inadequate or ashamed of myself, it is because I forgot this golden rule.
Seriously. Take a minute to consider this question for yourself: Over the last five years, have I made forward or backward progress towards what I want to achieve and who I want to be? I very much doubt that the answer is backward. If it is, then you’re being too hard on yourself. Have you learned new skills or acquired new knowledge? Have you matured in your friendships? Have you built up career capital?
We don’t like to ask ourselves the above question. What we like to ask is this: What does my progress look like compared to my friends? To my neighbors? To my siblings? That is what I am doing when I read writers like Andrew Sullivan, Ezra Klein and Ranjan Roy. I’m telling myself “you can’t get there,” when my starting point is completely different from theirs. Andrew Sullivan spent ten years writing for the New Republic and fifteen for his own blog, The Dish. Ranjan Roy runs his own newsletter company. The only possible outcome of comparing myself to them is self-loathing.
Life is iterative. I’m reminded of this every time a superstar podcast guest admits that they continuously work on themselves like everyone else – the best example of which is Brené Brown struggling to accept her own vulnerability (she is the foremost expert on vulnerability). I’ve been well aware of Peterson’s rule for a few years now but am still blown away each time I read it, as though I’ve forgotten. And the truth is I have forgotten. I’m asking myself the wrong question – how do I compare to them? – and missing the glaring truth that 2,482 page views is better than zero page views, and that 45 email subscribers is better than none.
So much of the wisdom on how to live happy, fulfilling lives tricks us like this. Its childlike simplicity – i.e. “Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get” – goes in one ear and out the other. And unless we constantly remind ourselves, the wisdom evaporates.
Let me repeat what will most likely be my favorite quote of 2020:
“Two men looked out from prison bars,
One saw the mud, the other saw stars.”
It can be disheartening to look at those small numbers above. But in the course of myevolution towards becoming a writer, they are statistically insignificant. Andrew Sullivan wrote on his site for fifteen years. That means I am about two percent of the way towards becoming the guy who sits down and writes this kind of farewell to his readers. There had to be a time when Sullivan thought his writing might turn out to be an absolute failure.
In sum: I am ready for a few more readers. If you like what you read, and think somebody else would as well, please forward to them and suggest that they subscribe! There’s no referral fee but I will be eternally grateful.
Data Is Beautifully Obvious
I had the awesome experience of being sent this graph by two friends within one minute of one another:
There’s nothing like that feeling of validation when the data clearly shows something you’ve known was happening for weeks. See guys! Blatant disregard for public health guidelines has consequences!
Just kidding. Shaming isn’t effective. These same regions thought they had things under control and now they don’t, and they will react accordingly (barring interference from moronic governors). I don’t usually look at charts like this because I try to stay blissfully ignorant about virus statistics, but some charts are just too pretty…
One Last Thing!
I am resurfacing my quarantine book list from a few months ago. I usually go heavy on the non-fiction in the first few months of the year, then read a bunch of airport fiction in the summer, and return to non-fiction for the end of the year. I loved everything on that list, but The Snowman is a cold, Norwegian thriller that’s particularly well suited for poolside reading.
– Emmett
Recent Posts:
FOGS (Fear Of Getting Started) – Some advice on overcoming our inclination towards inaction
Post a Picture: Rockaway – Trying something new
What I’m Reading:
Robinhood and How to Lose Money – Ranjan Roy, Margins
The Years of Writing Dangerously – Andrew Sullivan, The Dish (2015)
What Andrew’s Sullivan’s Exit Says About the Future of Blogging – Ezra Klein, Vox (2015)
See You Next Friday: A Farewell Letter – Andrew Sullivan, New York Magazine (2020)
What I’m Listening To:
Bryan Stevenson on how America can heal – Ezra Klein Show
The Art of Unplugging, Carving Your Own Path, and Riding the Entrepreneurial Rollercoaster – Brad Feld, The Tim Ferriss Show